The Yay Nay Or Meh Podcast

An updated list of predictions for what will be nominated for best picture at the 98th Academy awards in 2026. Adjusted following the Telluride, Venice and Toronto Festivals. In some kind of order for what will win, but mostly what I think will get nominated.

The rankings are based entirely on what I think might get into the Best Picture discussion and ignore any other categories. There are films near the bottom of this list which I firmly expect to be in the running for acting awards.

This list is in three tiers: 10 nominees, 15 contenders and 15 maybes?

Most of these will look foolish in a few months, but if I hit I’ll look like a genius.

1. One Battle After Another Paul Thomas Anderson (Warner Bros)
2. Hamnet Chloé Zhao (Focus)
3. Sentimental Value Joachim Trier (Neon)
4. Sinners Ryan Coogler (Warner Bros)
5. It Was Just An Accident Jafar Panahi (Neon)
6. Wicked: For Good Jon M. Chu (Universal)
7. Marty Supreme Josh Safdie (A24)
8. Bugonia Yorgos Lanthimos (Focus)
9. Frankenstein Guillermo del Toro (Netflix) Up
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash James Cameron (20th Century) Up
11. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere Scott Cooper (20th Century)Down
12. A House of Dynamite Kathryn Bigelow (Netflix) Down
13. Train Dreams Clint Bentley (Netflix)
14. Jay Kelly Noah Baumbach (Netflix)
15. No Other Choice Park Chan-Wook (Neon)
16. The Voice of Hind Rajab Kaouther Ben Hania (WILLA)
17. Die, My Love Lynne Ramsay (MUBI)
18. Hedda Nia DaCosta (Amazon-MGM) Up
19. After the Hunt Luca Guadagnino (Amazon-MGM)
20. The Testament of Ann Lee Mona Fastvold (Searchlight)
21. Rental Family Hikari (Searchlight)
22. Is This Thing On? Bradley Cooper (Searchlight) Up
23. The Smashing Machine Benny Safdie (A24)
24. Sorry, Baby Eva Victor (A24) New Entry
25. The Secret Agent Kleber Mendonça Filho (Neon) Up
26. Nuremberg James Vanderbilt (Sony Classics) Down
27. Nouvelle Vague Richard Linklater (Netflix) Down
28. Kiss of the Spider Woman Bill Condon (Lionsgate) Down
29. Father, Mother, Sister, Brother Jim Jarmusch (MUBI) Down
30. Sirât Oliver Laxe (Neon)
31. Sound of Falling Mascha Schilinski (MUBI)
32. Eddington Ari Aster (A24)
33. Materialists Celine Song (A24)
34. Ballad of a Small Player Edward Berger (Netflix)
35. F1® the Movie Joseph Kosinski (Warner Bros/Apple)
36. Roofman Derek Cianfrance (Paramount)
37. The Life of Chuck Mike Flanagan (Neon)
38. Eleanor the Great Scarlett Johansson (Sony Classics)
39. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You Mary Bronstein (A24) New Entry
40. Don’t Let’s Go to the Dogs Tonight Embeth Davidtz (Sony Classics) New Entry