The Yay Nay Or Meh Podcast

An updated list of predictions for what will be nominated for best picture at the 98th Academy awards in 2026. Adjusted following the Telluride, Venice and Toronto Festivals. In some kind of order for what will win, but mostly what I think will get nominated.

The rankings are based entirely on what I think might get into the Best Picture discussion and ignore any other categories. There are films near the bottom of this list which I firmly expect to be in the running for acting awards.

This list is in three tiers: 10 nominees, 15 contenders and 15 maybes?

Most of these will look foolish in a few months, but if I hit I’ll look like a genius.

1. Sentimental Value Joachim Trier (Neon)
2. Hamnet Chloé Zhao (Focus) Up
3. Bugonia Yorgos Lanthimos (Focus)
4. Sinners Ryan Coogler (Warner Bros)
5. Marty Supreme Josh Safdie (A24)
6. It Was Just An Accident Jafar Panahi (Neon)
7. Wicked: For Good Jon M. Chu (Universal)
8. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere Scott Cooper (20th Century)
9. One Battle After Another Paul Thomas Anderson (Warner Bros) Up
10. A House of Dynamite Kathryn Bigelow (Netflix) Up
11. Jay Kelly Noah Baumbach (Netflix) Down
12. Rental Family Hikari (Searchlight)
13. No Other Choice Park Chan-Wook (Neon)
14. Avatar: Fire and Ash James Cameron (20th Century) Down
15. After the Hunt Luca Guadagnino (Amazon-MGM) Down
16. The Smashing Machine Benny Safdie (A24)
17. The Testament of Ann Lee Mona Fastvold (TBD)
18. Frankenstein Guillermo del Toro (Netflix)
19. Train Dreams Clint Bentley (Netflix) New Entry
20. Nouvelle Vague Richard Linklater (Netflix) New Entry
21. Father, Mother, Sister, Brother Jim Jarmusch (MUBI) Up
22. Die, My Love Lynne Ramsay (MUBI)
23. Kiss of the Spider Woman Bill Condon (Lionsgate)
24. Nuremberg James Vanderbilt (Sony Classics)
25. The Voice of Hind Rajab Kaouther Ben Hania (TBD) New Entry
26. Roofman Derek Cianfrance (Paramount) Down
27. Hedda Nia DaCosta (Amazon-MGM) Down
28. The Secret Agent Kleber Mendonça Filho (Neon) Down
29. Sirât Oliver Laxe (Neon) Down
30. The Life of Chuck Mike Flanagan (Neon)
31. F1® the Movie Joseph Kosinski (Warner Bros/Apple)
32. Eleanor the Great Scarlett Johansson (Sony Classics)
33. Ballad of a Small Player Edward Berger (Netflix)
34. Eddington Ari Aster (A24)
35. Materialists Celine Song (A24)
36. Sound of Falling Mascha Schilinski (MUBI)
37. The Rivals of Amziah King Andrew Patterson (Black Bear)
38. Late Fame Kent Jones (TBD)
39. Is This Thing On? Bradley Cooper (Searchlight) New Entry
40. Weapons Zach Cregger (Warner Bros) New Entry