The Yay Nay Or Meh Podcast

An updated list of predictions for what will be nominated for best picture at the 98th Academy awards in 2026. Adjusted following the line-up releases of the Venice and Toronto Festivals. In some kind of order for what will win, but mostly what I think will get nominated.

The rankings are based entirely on what I think might get into the Best Picture discussion and ignore any other categories. There are films near the bottom of this list which I firmly expect to be in the running for acting awards.

This list is in three tiers: 10 nominees, 15 contenders and 15 maybes?

Most of these will look foolish in a few months, but if I hit I’ll look like a genius.

1. Bugonia Yorgos Lanthimos (Focus)
2. After the Hunt Luca Guadagnino (Amazon-MGM)
3. Sentimental Value Joachim Trier (Neon)
4. Sinners Ryan Coogler (Warner Bros) Up
5. Wicked: For Good Jon M. Chu (Universal)
6. Avatar: Fire and Ash James Cameron (20th Century)
7. Jay Kelly Noah Baumbach (Netflix)
8. Marty Supreme Josh Safdie (A24)
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere Scott Cooper (20th Century)
10. It Was Just An Accident Jafar Panahi (Neon)
11. The Smashing Machine Benny Safdie (A24)
12. One Battle After Another Paul Thomas Anderson (Warner Bros)
13. Rental Family Hikari (Searchlight)
14. Hamnet Chloé Zhao (Focus) Down
15. Die, My Love Lynne Ramsay (MUBI)
16. Frankenstein Guillermo del Toro (Netflix)
17. A House of Dynamite Kathryn Bigelow (Netflix) Up
18. The Testament of Ann Lee Mona Fastvold (TBD)
19. Hedda Nia DaCosta (Amazon-MGM)
20. The Secret Agent Kleber Mendonça Filho (Neon)
21. Sirât Oliver Laxe (Neon)
22. No Other Choice Park Chan-Wook (Neon) Up
23. Kiss of the Spider Woman Bill Condon (Lionsgate) Up
24. Nuremberg James Vanderbilt (Sony Classics) New Entry
25. Roofman Derek Cianfrance (Paramount) New Entry
26. Sound of Falling Mascha Schilinski (MUBI) Down
27. Eddington Ari Aster (A24) Down
28. The Rivals of Amziah King Andrew Patterson (TBD) Down
29. The Phoenician Scheme Wes Anderson (Focus) Down
30. F1® the Movie Joseph Kosinski (Warner Bros/Apple) Down
31. The Life of Chuck Mike Flanagan (Neon)
32. Ballad of a Small Player Edward Berger (Netflix)
33. Ella McCay James L. Brooks (20th Century)
34. Eleanor the Great Scarlett Johansson (Sony Classics)
35. Preparation For the Next Life Bing Liu (Amazon-MGM)
36. Pressure Anthony Maras (Focus)
37. Materialists Celine Song (A24) New Entry
38. Father, Mother, Sister, Brother Jim Jarmusch (MUBI) New Entry
39. The Wizard of the Kremlin Olivier Assayas (MUBI) New Entry
40. Late Fame Kent Jones (TBD) New Entry